South Africa’s Citrus Production Projected to Reach Record High in 2022/23

In the midst of decreased global citrus production, South Africa – Africa’s second highest performing state in terms of GDP – is projected to receive a boost in citrus exports, according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s “Citrus: World Markets and Trade Report”. 

As things stand in the citrus market, the global production of tangerines and mandarins is projected to be down 1.2 million tons to 36.6 million, with consumption expected to be lower with the reduced supplies. Global orange production is also projected to drop by 5 percent to 47.5 million tons as reduced production in the European Union and the United States is only partially offset by a larger crop yield in Egypt. Consumption and the amount of processed fruit is also projected to slump. Grapefruit production is expected to drop 2 percent to 6.8 million tons, with subsequent reduced consumption and processing.  Production of lemons and limes is also set to drop globally by 7 percent to 9.3 million tons. 

The production woes plaguing the rest of the world doesn’t seem to affect South Africa’s production of citrus. In terms of citrus derived from tangerines and mandarins, South Africa’s production is expected to grow by 6 percent to 670,000 tons, due to sufficient water resources for irrigation in major production areas and new plantations reaching full production. South Africa’s exports of tangerines/mandarins are also to grow by almost 8 percent to reach a record 560,000 tons with the increased production and strong overseas demand. The European Union and the United Kingdom will account for 45 percent of South Africa’s total exports, followed by Russia (10 percent) and the United States (10 percent).  

According to the report, South Africa’s exports to the United States under African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) have quadrupled over the past 5 years, reaching nearly 50,000 tons in 2021/22. This trend is expected to continue based on the expanding consumer preference for tangerines/mandarins in the United States and continued duty-free market access under AGOA.  

Local consumption of tangerines/mandarins in South Africa is much smaller than oranges, as that industry prioritizes export markets and mostly supplies surplus fruit to the local market. The increased use of pest management netting has yielded higher quality produce and has reduced the percentage of fruit that is considered surplus. However, some high-end retail chains sell citrus originally intended for exports to domestic consumers. Therefore, local consumption of tangerines/mandarins is estimated to grow marginally to 48,000 tons in 2022/23. 

In terms of other chains in South Africa’s citrus market, orange production is to rise by 3 percent to 1.7 million tons as a result of favorable weather and an increased harvest area. Consumption and exports (at a record high for the third year in a row) are estimated to grow with the greater available supplies. Grapefruit production is to rise slightly to 385,000 tons. Consumption is projected to be unchanged with marginal growth forecasted for exports. China and the European Union are expected to be top export markets, while lemons and lime production is to increase by 2 percent to 660,000 tons. Record production for the seventh year in a row is also expected to lead to a seventh year of record exports. The European Union is expected to continue to account for over one-third of the exports. 

Planting area is forecast to rise just 1 percent in 2022/23 to 28,225 hectares compared to an estimated 7 percent growth the year before. Harvest increases far outstripping that of planting area suggests better efficiency and higher average yield per hectare. The Western Cape province is the predominant producer, responsible for 37 percent of total production, followed by the Limpopo (28 percent) and Eastern Cape (25 percent) provinces. More than 50 percent of the area in South Africa consist of orchards younger than 5 years, resulting in higher production potential in coming years. 

The major reason why global production sans South Africa’s is reduced is as cited as unfavorable weather, with many production areas seeing harsher summers. As climate change-induced weather fluctuations continue, it is expected that production globally will continue to drop. Additionally, economic growth is expected to weaken in key markets such as the European Union and United Kingdom as inflation is expected to remain an issue in these economies. Therefore, tighter austerity measures are likely to see consumer spending continue to fall.